Atmospheric state
Pressure-level wind, humidity, temperature, geopotential, potential vorticity, and vertical velocity are paired with surface instability, gust, wind, and dewpoint fields.
OpenSCS / Severe convective storms
Four decades of severe-weather hindcasts.
OpenSCS maps the atmospheric conditions associated with hail, damaging thunderstorm wind, and tornadoes across a consistent multi-decade archive.
The system
Atmosphere in. Hazard field out.
Each production checkpoint uses three consecutive atmospheric states, a peril-specific target, and spatial sampling designed for rare events. Yearly inference creates a consistent hourly archive for retrospective analysis.
01 / Hail
Hail magnitude
The model recovers the central and southern Plains hail corridor and most of the highest-ranked observed cells. Its risk field is smoother and more concentrated than the report-derived reference.
Figure 01 / Climatology
Click to enlarge0.84spatial agreement
0.91rank agreement
71%top-decile hotspot capture
0.85neighborhood agreement
02 / Thunderstorm wind
Wind magnitude
The model captures the broad eastern-US wind corridor and places high-risk regions close to the report-derived hotspots. Absolute magnitude is too high and the spatial field is broader than the reference.
Figure 02 / Climatology
Click to enlarge0.77spatial agreement
0.70rank agreement
70%top-decile hotspot capture
0.89neighborhood agreement
03 / Tornado
Tornado probability
The production checkpoint recovers broad tornado geography and places predicted hotspots near many observed hotspots. It overpredicts absolute frequency, so the result supports spatial research—not calibrated event probability.
Figure 03 / Climatology
Click to enlarge0.70spatial agreement
0.53rank agreement
62%top-decile hotspot capture
0.90neighborhood agreement
Method
One pipeline, peril-specific targets.
Shared machinery keeps the experiments comparable without pretending the hazards behave the same way.
Observed events
NOAA storm reports provide hail, wind, and tornado events. Hail experiments can also incorporate MRMS-derived fields with explicit overlap rules.
Space and probability
Pattern agreement, rank agreement, hotspot capture, and neighborhood scores describe spatial behavior. Probability diagnostics are used for tornado.
OpenSCS